Why automatic resolution?
Traditional prediction markets often rely on human oracles to determine outcomes. This creates problems:- Delays in settlement
- Potential for disputes
- Risk of manipulation
Supported market types
Market Cap
Predict whether a token’s market cap will be higher or lower at the deadline.Data source: Pump.fun API
Prediction Markets
Predict whether the YES odds of a Polymarket/Kalshi Market will be higher or lower at the deadline.Data source: Polymarket/Kalshi API
Custom markets exist but require manual resolution by administrators. These are rare and only used for special events.
How resolution works
When a market is created, a settlement job is scheduled for the exact deadline. Here’s what happens:1
Market deadline hits
The settler service picks up the scheduled job from the queue.
2
Fetch outcome data
The settler queries the appropriate data source based on market type:
- Market cap: Fetches current price from Pump.fun API
- Polymarket: Fetches current YES odds from Polymarket API
- Kalshi: Fetches current YES odds from Kalshi API
3
Determine winner
The outcome is calculated using objective rules:
- Market cap: YES wins if final > starting, NO wins otherwise
- Polymarket: YES wins if final > starting, NO wins otherwise
- Kalshi: YES wins if final > starting, NO wins otherwise
4
Resolve on-chain
The settler submits a transaction to the Solana program, recording the outcome permanently on-chain.
Adding new market types
New market types can only be added by the Pumpcade team. Each new type requires:- A reliable, programmatic data source
- Clear, objective resolution rules
- Integration into the settler service
- Testing to ensure accurate resolution
Have an idea for a new market type? Reach out on Twitter.